Parliament prorogued until March 24
Following weeks of political turmoil, Prime Minister Trudeau will resign as Liberal leader.
Parliament is prorogued until March 24th. Trudeau will remain on as leader and Prime Minister until a new leader is chosen at a forthcoming leadership convention.
Here’s what business leaders need to know:
Summary
- Legislative Delays: All current bills are void and must restart, delaying critical policies and funding. Commitments in the Fall Economic Statement are in jeopardy.
- Cabinet Changes: Leadership of key ministries may shift, affecting regulatory priorities. This will likely include Finance, Foreign Affairs, Transportation and Internal Trade, and Innovation, Science and Industry, among others.
- U.S. Tariffs: President-elect Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on Canadian exports poses immediate risks to industries reliant on U.S. markets while Ottawa weakens due to political chaos.
- Urgency for Advocacy: Business leaders should engage senior public servants and political officials to ensure your sector’s priorities influence the next government’s agenda.
Parliament Prorogued
Impact on Business:
- Legislation Delayed: Expect delays in pending trade, finance, and innovation policies.
- Committees Paused: Advocacy efforts must adapt to stalled committee operations.
- Volatility Ahead: Leadership changes could alter regulatory priorities, affecting planning and investments for industry.
What Does Proroguing Parliament Mean?
The prorogation of Parliament pauses legislative activities, removing all current bills from the House’s docket. All committee activity will halt.
While government legislation can be reintroduced in subsequent sessions, it must begin again at First Reading unless it receives unanimous consent—a rare agreement in polarized political climates, especially amid the partisan tensions found in Ottawa.
How Long Will Parliament Be Prorogued?
Parliament will prorogue until March 24.
Following prorogation, the House of Commons will resume for a Speech from the Throne. The government could face non-confidence motions as early as March 26 to bring down the government. If successful, the government will fall and an election will be called.
All opposition leaders have vowed to topple a Liberal government regardless of who is party leader.
When Will the Liberals Choose a New Leader?
The Liberal Party will meet with their National Executive this week to determine the leadership process.
The Liberal Party’s constitution requires it to form a leadership committee within 27 days of a leader’s resignation. Prospective candidates must register 90 days before the vote, although the party can compress the timelines given electoral and geopolitical urgency.
Expect Another Cabinet Shuffle
Current cabinet ministers who seek party leadership must resign their posts.
Expect leadership changes in key government departments including:
- Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly
- Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry François-Philippe Champagne
- Minister of Transportation and Internal Trade Anita Anand
- Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs Dominic LeBlanc
- Karina Gould, Government House Leader
Additional candidates may include:
- Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland
- Former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark
- Former Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney
Canada – U.S. Relations
Adding complexity to the political crisis is the forthcoming inauguration of President-Elect Donald Trump. Trump has announced plans to impose a sweeping 25% tariff on Canadian imports shortly after he assumes office on January 20.
With 77% of Canada’s exports destined for the United States, such a tariff would deliver substantial blows to key industries, including energy, critical minerals, automotive manufacturing, agriculture, and consumer goods.
Do the Following to Prepare for the Threatened US Tariffs:
- Use Wellington Advocacy’s expertise to navigate government negotiations and safeguard your interests.
- Diversify supply chains to reduce dependency on U.S. markets.
- Strengthen trade relationships with non-U.S. partners.
Even if Parliament prorogues, the Liberal government can engage in international trade negotiations. However, Trump is likely to question the credibility of any commitments made by a government in transition—a significant limitation as Canada attempts to defend its economic interests against an increasingly aggressive negotiating partner.
How We Got Here
Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation follows weeks of political turbulence marked by the surprise exit of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland, who resigned just hours before she was to table the much-anticipated Fall Economic Statement.
Trudeau’s resignation is the culmination of months of declining public opinion numbers, party infighting, and mounting pressure from opposition leaders to step aside or call an early election.
Before Trudeau’s resignation, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called loudly for an immediate election and announced plans to introduce a non-confidence motion when Parliament returned in late January.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who initially called for Trudeau’s resignation following Freeland’s departure, announced over the holiday break that his party would vote to bring down the government in the new year.
Partner with Wellington Advocacy
Business leaders must adapt quickly to Ottawa’s rapidly evolving political environment.
Thoughtful advocacy and engagement with the public service and senior political officials can ensure that the next government prioritizes your organization’s interests.
Wellington Advocacy advisors deliver unique insights informed by decades of experience leading Canada’s political machinery and public service.
Notable advisors include:
- The Hon. Wayne Wouters, P.C., O.C., 21st Clerk of the Privy Council and Secretary to the Cabinet
- Andrea van Vugt, previous Lead Foreign Affairs and International Trade Advisor to Canada’s 22nd Prime Minister, the Rt. Hon. Stephen Harper
- Zita Astravas, previous Director of Issues Management to Canada’s 23rd Prime Minister, the Rt. Hon. Justin Trudeau.
- Dr. Ann Penner, international trade advisor and previous Permanent Member of the Canadian International Trade Tribunal
Contact Wellington Advocacy to schedule your consultation.