As the Ontario Legislature prepares to resume on Monday, much has changed in the provincial political landscape since June.
Summer Break and Narrative Disrupted by Greenbelt Controversy
With the Greenbelt controversy continuing to derail the Government’s once proactive agenda on building affordable housing for Ontarians, the Government has been left to play defense and issues management on the housing file. Undoubtedly, Premier Ford will aim to use the fall sitting to attempt to move past the controversy, reclaim the Government’s narrative on building housing, and to rebuild Ontarians’ trust in the process.This controversy has disrupted the Government’s ability to deliver its ‘build Ontario’ message and a reinvigorated Opposition seeks to take advantage of this vulnerable position in the upcoming fall sitting.
In less than three weeks, Premier Ford has lost three ministers amidst the Greenbelt controversy. Following the release of reports by both the Auditor General and the Integrity Commissioner investigating the Ontario government’s decision to remove lands from the Greenbelt, Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing Steve Clark resigned from Cabinet effective September 4, 2023, but remains in caucus as an MPP.
On September 20, Minister of Public Business and Service Delivery, Kaleed Rasheed resigned from Cabinet and the PC caucus soon after the release of reports that Rasheed visited a massage parlor with a prominent developer in Las Vegas, contradicting his previous testimony to the Integrity Commissioner. He now sits as an independent MPP for Mississauga East Cooksville.
The third resignation was announced by Minister Monte McNaughton who has accepted a job in the private sector. Minister McNaughton’s statement stated his departure is not related to current events but his exit is a critical loss to the Government. McNaughton will be remembered for his ability to build a sizeable coalition of labour groups for the PCs during the last provincial election.
On Thursday, September 21, Premier Ford announced that the PC will no longer remove lands from the Greenbelt at a press conference in Niagara Falls, flanked by members of his Cabinet. The Premier apologized to Ontarians for the decision and committed to not touching the Greenbelt in the future. Premier Ford also reaffirmed his commitment to building more homes.
In the wake of these Cabinet resignations and policy reversals, the Premier has shuffled his Cabinet again as he attempts to manage the Greenbelt controversy and the threat it presents to his political image and positioning.
Here are the following changes to note of Ford’s latest Cabinet shuffle:
- David Piccini moves from Environment, Conservation and Parks (MECP) to Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development (MLITSD).
- Andrea Khanjin is promoted into Cabinet as the new minister for Minister for MECP.
- Todd McCarthy is promoted from Associate Minister of Transportation to Minister for Public Business and Service Delivery (MPBSD).
- Vijay Thanigasalam is promoted into Cabinet as the new Associate Minister of Transportation.
All other ministers maintain their current portfolios (for whole list, click here). If you are looking for specific insights into what these changes may mean for your organization please reach out to us .
Cabinet Shuffle Analysis:
McNaughton’s Departure and Piccini’s Rise to Labour Helm
McNaughton has been the longest serving Cabinet Minister of the labour file in decades and has seen substantial political success in the process. Starting as Labour Minister in June 2019, he aggressively and successfully developed new relationships with key labour leaders traditionally not accessible to the PCs. He rallied these leaders’ political support to build the Ontario’s Skilled Trades Strategy, Skills Development Fund, and the Working for Workers legislation series. These policies, programs, and initiatives delivered hundreds of millions to delivery agents, settlement services, training centres, and building trades to train thousands of workers to address the skilled trades shortages in the province. All these moves were proven helpful in Ford’s re-election as Premier in 2022. McNaughton’s departure is significant as he held has served as the primary relationship holder of this valuable stakeholder coalition. It will be as much a challenge as it is an opportunity for Piccini to maintain these relationships and keep labour groups involved and supportive of the Government’s ongoing skilled trades strategy.
Most recently, Piccini has managed the Ministry of Environment, Conversation and Parks successfully by avoiding political controversy and distraction typically surrounding the environment file. This was a previous source of political vulnerability for Ford and the PCs. However, Ford will expect Piccini to be more present and vocal in announcements coming out of the labour file and to ensure the recently established workers and union coalition is held intact. Piccini will be on the road more often, donning hard hats and steel toed boots as he prepares to make dozens of Skills Development Fund announcements across the province.
Piccini’s role also includes the responsibilities as immigration minister. And he will be more involved with cultural outreach programming and events across the province. He will be keen to ensure foreign credentialling reforms are successfully implemented and generating policy achievements on foreign credentialling will help him build credibility with newcomers that the Government intends to help everyone access demand driven jobs, including the growing Ukrainian diaspora in the GTA.
If Piccini can maintain these relationships successfully, he will become a more relied upon player in Ford’s embattled Cabinet.
Cabinet Promotions
Andrea Khanjin enters cabinet as the new Minister of Environment, Conservation and Parks. Serving most recently as Parliamentary Assistant to Intergovernmental Affairs, Khanjin will begin her first post as a Cabinet minister. As a seasoned former political staff in conservative circles, she will leverage her intergovernmental experience in MECP’s ongoing discussions with the federal government.
Vijay Thanigasalam enters Cabinet and replaces Todd McCarthy as Associate Minister for Transportation. Serving as a previous Parliamentary Assistant to Transportation, Thanigasalam will support senior Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria as they crisscross Ontario, to convince Ontarians that transit delays are temporary and that more transportation builds are on the way to alleviate traffic jams, especially in the seat rich GTA.
Todd McCarthy’s promotion comes just over two weeks after his initial promotion into Cabinet. A longtime Tory and former named partner at Flaherty McCarthy LLP, Minister McCarthy also brings decades of legal experience to the Cabinet table. His political acumen and legal experience will be valuable assets to Ford’s Cabinet as an up-and-coming Cabinet minister. His appointment is an opportunity for him to manage an important legislative initiative surrounding reforming the Consumer Protection Act. If McCarthy can meaningfully improve Government procurement processes at a time of increased demand for services by Ontarians, he will strengthen Ford’s image of making Government run more efficiently.
Ford’s new Housing Minister and Government House Leader Paul Calandra will be a key player this sitting with his appointment to this role signaling the trust the Premier has in the Minister. Expect a lively and combative Question Period where the Government and Opposition battle to create a message that will resonate with their respective bases and the broader public.
In tandem with Minister Calandra, newly appointed Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria and Associate Minister Vijay Thanigasalam will try to fix the problematic transportation file. If they can do so effectively, the Ford Government may restrengthen their narrative as a government that can get things done.
Fall Session Forecast:
- Premier Ford Looks to Regain Political Momentum
Expect a reinvigorated Opposition where NDP Leader Marit Stiles tries to rally her caucus as “leading the fight to restore ethics and trust to Queen’s Park.” Liberal Interim Leader John Fraser will continue to press Ford on the same issue and serve as the Liberals’ parliamentary voice while the Party focuses on their leadership race for a new leader.
Additionally, Ontario’s Liberal Party is expected to select a new leader in December. None of the four candidates (Bonnie Crombie, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Ted Hsu, and Yasir Naqvi) are sitting currently in the Provincial Legislature. The winner of this leadership will have limited opportunities to go head-to-head with the Premier without having a seat in the Legislature. withtheir criticism in parliament needing to be carried out vicariously through the current Liberal caucus of 9 MPPs.
The new leader will have to contrast Ford’s policies from their own, re-energize support in the Liberal Party base, and convince Ontarians it is time to put trust back in the Liberals. Their criticism of Ford is expected to be limited, without posing serious political threats to the Government’s parliamentary position. They may, however, compliment the NDP’s mounting criticism against Ford over the Greenbelt controversy.
At the same time, we should expect the Government to be increasingly hesitant to take risks and less willing to generate proactive policy. The Greenbelt controversy can disrupt efficient collaboration between the ministry officials responsible for implementing policy and the political staff and elected officials responsible for enforcing the implementation. This work is intense and critical to see progress on files.
Forthcoming Priorities:
- Health
This fall we will see Minister of Health Sylvia Jones build upon the work of Your Health: A Plan for Connected and Convenient Care and table the long-awaited homecare legislation.
This legislation will serve as the Government’s next step to strengthen Ontario Health Teams (OHTs), transitioning home care to OHTs, while consolidating the province’s existing 14 regional Home and Community Care Support Services organizations.
There is much discussion on what the fall season will bring in terms of health care capacity. We will see the government role out their fall preparedness plan, which will include their campaigns encouraging annual flu shots, updated covid-19 boosters, as well as the roll-out of the RSV vaccine. We expect pharmacies to play a critical role in the administration of vaccines.
Additionally, the Ministry of Health is actively preparing to resume negotiations with physicians on the next Physician Services Agreement, as well as closely watching the federal government’s commitment on a national pharmacare program, with legislation expected to be tabled this fall in Ottawa.
- Fall Economic Statement (FES)
Facing mounting criticism and high inflation, Premier Ford will be keen to deliver material policy wins for struggling Ontarians amidst the ongoing affordability crisis. Economic uncertainty remains high on voters’ minds and interest rates remain above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Ford’s 2023 Budget projection of surplus will be critical to maintain, otherwise the PC brand of fiscal prudence lack credibility at a moment of increased political vulnerability for the Government. Ford can be expected to continue advancing policies that address affordable living concerns and critical infrastructure across the province.
- Red Tape Bill
Premier Ford wants the public to see his Government make the best of its services and eliminate any unnecessary red tape. Minister Gill’s upcoming legislation will be a collection of policy items curated from caucus wishes and stakeholder requests. If Minister Gill can prove these requests and reforms deliver material savings to Government operations and reduce regulatory burdens on businesses, he will strengthen Ford’s image with industry.
- Going Forward
Premier Ford will leverage his refreshed Cabinet to implement important policy decisions and will focus on strengthening Ontario’s healthcare system, making life more affordable for Ontarians, training a sustainable workforce, and ensuring a more streamlined approach to owning a business in Ontario. Additionally, the Premier will have to manage mounting Opposition in lieu of the Greenbelt controversy. Should the Premier succeed in making meaningful progress on policy development and managing the Opposition, his political image and position will strengthen for himself and the PCs. [TR1]
To learn more about how these changes and the upcoming fall sitting may impact your organization, please reach out to one of our advisors: https://wellingtonadvocacy.com/government-relations-ontario/