Today Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced key changes to the cabinet including eight new faces joining the cabinet table.
Top line
The long anticipated and significant shuffle comes after an unprecedented week of tumult and chaos in Ottawa following the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance hours ahead of the tabling of the Fall Economic Statement. Freeland’s resignation jeopardizes Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political future as Liberal MPs question their support of the Prime Minister and whether they will reoffer their candidacy come an election.
All three major opposition parties have committed to toppling the government with Pierre Poilievre issuing a letter to Governor General Mary Simon requesting that the House of Commons be recalled and hold a confidence vote as soon as possible.
Opposition parties call for an early election
Conservatives
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called for an early election promptly following Freeland’s resignation on Monday. With the Conservatives leading in the polls for over a year, Poilievre has been advancing an increasingly aggressive procedural strategy to pass non-confidence in the government.
Poilievre has also called on NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to publicly commit to toppling the government. In response to Freeland’s resignation, Singh had called on Trudeau to resign but had stopped short of promising to help trigger an early election.
NDP
However, Singh announced Friday morning that the NDP will put forward a clear motion of non-confidence in the House of Commons, finally ending days of questions of whether he will continue supporting the Liberals in the House.
There are a number of ways that the Government could be brought down with non-confidence votes, but with this confirmation, it is now a question of how early an election will be, with the likelihood being sometime between late February and April, assuming the house resumes in the new year.
Bloc Québécois
The Leader of the Bloc Québécois, Yves-François Blanchet, continues to criticize the federal Liberals, claiming it is ineffective amid a diplomatic and trade crisis with the U.S. Blanchet argues that Trudeau’s leadership has devolved into a self-serving distraction, leaving Canadians “hostages” to his political drama. He calls for an election to establish a stable mandate and expresses readiness to work with any elected government. With the NDP now supporting the idea of toppling the government, Blanchet emphasizes the urgency of having a new parliament by early 2025.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political future
Open questions about Justin Trudeau’s leadership remain. Today’s cabinet shuffle was seen as necessary following several cabinet resignations over the past six months, most notably Freeland’s.
The Christmas break will offer the Prime Minister a short window to reflect on this political future and see if those cabinet hopefuls, who now have clarity that they have not made the cut, will potentially revolt.
Questions remain on whether the government will prorogue the House of Commons. There are ongoing questions regarding how a leadership race would be conducted should the Prime Minister resign.
Despite open questions about Prime Minister Trudeau’s leadership, one can anticipate that the Prime Minister would express a desire to stay on as leader, chair the G7 and remain point on Canada-US trade negotiations for the time being. While this is speculative, the coming days and weeks over the Christmas break will determine a path forward.
Liberals seen as poised to launch leadership campaigns have remained largely silent with the exception of Freeland in recent days, who is rumoured to have been calling Liberal MPs preparing for a leadership bid.
Cabinet Shake Up
Except for changes at public safety, key players for Canada-US relations at Foreign Affairs (Minister Melanie Joly), International Trade (Minister Mary Ng) and Innovation, Science and Industry (Minister François-Philippe Champagne) have remained the same. While Minister Dominic Leblanc has taken over new responsibilities as Minister of Finance, he has been involved in the Canada-US table over the past number of years and will continue his relationship with Canada’s Premiers as the key interlocutor.
Significant changes to the Public Safety portfolio with the appointment of David McGuinty (Public Safety) and Rachel Bendayan (Minister of Official Languages and Associate Minister of Public Safety). Mr. McGuinty, a longtime Liberal MP and former chair of the national security oversight committee NSICOP has gained experience in working with the portfolio agencies. Ms. Bendayan has been seen as a vocal advocate on gun control being a close ally to Poly Se Souvient, a Quebec based advocacy group, that has argued for recent changes in this domain.
No changes are seen in the portfolios affecting the natural resource sector (Minister of Energy and Natural Resources and Environment and Climate Change) or the healthcare sector (Health Canada and Mental Health and Addictions)
Regional Dynamics
Atlantic Canada
Atlantic Canada has seen two additions to the cabinet table with members from Newfoundland and Labrador Joanne Thompson, (MP for St. John’s East, Minister of Seniors) and Darren Fisher (MP for Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence) replacing the resignations of Nova Scotia Minister Sean Fraser (Central Noval) and Newfoundland and Labrador Minister Seamus O’Regan (MP St. John’s South—Mount Pearl). Mr. Fisher is seen as a strong advocate for Atlantic Canada. Having Joanne Thompson as Minister of Seniors based in Atlantic Canada is a nod to this important voting block that the Liberals will try to keep going into the next election.
Ginette Petitpas Taylor (Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe) takes on new responsibilities at Treasury Board. Ms. Petitpas Taylor is seen as a loyalist and collaborates well with the public service.
British Colombia, Prairies and North
Alberta no longer has representation at the cabinet table following the resignation of Randy Boissonnault (Edmonton – Centre) however Manitoba sees Terry Duguid (MP for Winnipeg South, Minister of Sport ad Minister responsible for Prairies Economic Development Canada) continue their representation following Dan Vandal (Saint Boniface – Saint Vital). Mr. Duiguid has been regarded as a party loyalist having held several parliamentary secretary roles and political roles within the Liberal Party. No new faces from the territories or British Colombia have been named.
Ontario
Two fresh faces have been named to cabinet from Ontario – Nate Erskin-Smith (Beaches – East York) has been promoted to Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities, and David McGuinty (Ottawa South) as Minister of Public Safety. While eyebrow raising in some cases to have new ministers take over key portfolios, Mr. Erskin-Smith has been a longtime housing advocate and has reversed his decision to retire from federal politics to take on this role. He has been seen as a maverick within the Liberal benches having been an outspoken critic of the government on some policy items however is seen as a strong communicator. This means that housing will have an advocate as a Minister and someone who will keep pushing the government’s key agenda item into 2025.
Anita Anand (Oakville) has been holding both Transport and Treasury Board over the past number of months following the resignation of Pablo Rodriguez and unsustainable in the long-term. She adds responsibilities for Internal Trade, positioning her to take a role in dealing with the provinces and territories on persistent internal trade irritants within the federation.
Gary Anandasangaree (Scarborough – Rouge Park) sees an addition to his existing ministerial portfolio of Crown-Indigenous Relations to add Northern Affairs and Minister responsible for the Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency. He is seen as having established many territorial relationships during his ministerial time and able to build on this with these additional responsibilities.
Ruby Sahota (Brampton North) is promoted from Chief Government Whip to take on new responsibilities as Minister of Democratic Institutions and Minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario. She is respected in her relationships in caucus and will now be able to play more of a political role in Ontario and neighbouring ridings to shore up support in the lead up to the election.
Quebec
Steven MacKinnon (Gatineau) takes on additional responsibilities with Employment, Workforce Development on top of Labour. He is seen to have held a steady hand at Labour in the past tumultuous few months and looks to add some stability to these two portfolios to see through recent TFW and immigration changes the government has undertaken.
Rachel Bendayan (Outremont) takes on new responsibilities as Minister of Official Languages and Associate Minister of Public Safety. Ms. Bendayan has been seen as a vocal advocate on gun control being a close ally to Poly Se Souvient, a Quebec based advocacy group. She has also been a key player in discussions about the use of English in Quebec and official language laws in Canada.
Élisabeth Brière (Sherbrooke) is the new Minister of Revenue and responsible for the CRA. A new player to cabinet, she has been a strong constituency MP and a loyalist to the Prime Minister.